Justifying a Jump
Poker January 11th. 2009, 1:32amI’m trying to evaluate if, when, and how I should make the jump to the $24 $4k guarantee HORSE tourney that runs nightly. I decided to run some numbers on the nightly $5 HORSE tourney that I’ve had some success in to see if this jump is even warranted. As it turns out, tonight’s tourney (which I didn’t make any noise in) was the 100th that I’ve played at the $5 level since May 1, 2008, when I first played it (I threw in the lone $10 HORSE tourney that I played for this analysis).
Here’s the results. I’m a geek for stats, and I keep records on everything I play, so this was kinda fun.
Tourneys played – 100
Cashes – 17
Final Tables – 13
Top Three Finishes – 11
Average Finish Percentile – 35.91%
Wins – 4
2nds – 4
3rds – 3
Total Buyin Cost (including rake) – $555.50
Total Amount Cashed – $1,577.23
Profit – $1,021.73
What do you think? Should I think about playing the $4K a little more. I’ve played it a few times over the last six months, but with little success though. I don’t think the level of play is a heck of a lot different that what you would see at the $5/$10 levels. In fact, better opponents might be a +EV move for me in some respects.
Bankroll is the other factor. Currently, I’m not at a point where I’ll simply buy in to the $26 tourney 3-4 times a week, I’ll need to do a little more token hunting, which is not a difficult task, but takes time.
Any thoughts, opinions, criticisms?
January 11th, 2009 at 9:20 am
Make the jump! You can do it….look at your ROI.
January 11th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
There’s no level between $5 and $24? You definitely have the game to be a factor in that event but your risk of ruin is still fairly high. I see Stars runs a $10 at 6:45 pm EST. I’d be of the mind of taking some shots, but being able to step back and not get ground down by a run of several bad results. That these are token entry is definitely helpful in that you can win entry and that you may be facing weaker players.
January 11th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
I would say: If you don’t want to make the complete jump, why not play half and half at first and see how it goes? If you get things going, jump jump jump completely…?!?
January 11th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
I would agree that you should take the leap, but if your concerned about your bankroll I like Ingoal’s advice.
You say you are a stats geek, so check to see if there is a certain day you do better then all others and make that day your 4k tournament day and play the normal $5 the rest of the time until you can move up full time.
January 11th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
I think your stats certainly warrant it. Set aside a certain amount of money for them and see how it goes; if that money goes away then build it back up and try again.
But here’s a couple other thoughts:
Ask yourself why you are doing it. If you’re bored with the $5 games, then go ahead. When I decided to move to $100 NL, I questioned it at first but finally made the move because I knew I could do it and was bored with my current level. Are you having fun at the $5 level however? If the answer is yes you may not have to move up.
Another thought is to stick to a night or three where the play is much worse and play the higher levels on those nights and stick to the lower buyins on other nights. That’s what I do. (Oh, Breeze beat me to it; I didn’t see his comment)
Finally, you could try to spend up to $17 to get a token, and if it doesn’t work, then try again the next night.
January 12th, 2009 at 10:35 am
Me and emptyman both cashed in the 4K yesterday; it’s not as soft as the $5 HORSE but the donkeys are still out there.
January 12th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
They way you play..absolutely not.
January 13th, 2009 at 11:32 am
I like peakers and breeze’s idea to move up in stages. Why leave the fish pond if it is profitable for you. Just stick your foot in the bigger pond while not losing out on the ROI that you have dominated.
Good Luck.