I’m trying to evaluate if, when, and how I should make the jump to the $24 $4k guarantee HORSE tourney that runs nightly.  I decided to run some numbers on the nightly $5 HORSE tourney that I’ve had some success in to see if this jump is even warranted.  As it turns out, tonight’s tourney (which I didn’t make any noise in) was the 100th that I’ve played at the $5 level since May 1, 2008, when I first played it (I threw in the lone $10 HORSE tourney that I played for this analysis).

Here’s the results.  I’m a geek for stats, and I keep records on everything I play, so this was kinda fun.

Tourneys played – 100
Cashes – 17
Final Tables – 13
Top Three Finishes – 11
Average Finish Percentile – 35.91%
Wins – 4
2nds – 4
3rds – 3
Total Buyin Cost (including rake) – $555.50
Total Amount Cashed – $1,577.23
Profit – $1,021.73

What do you think?  Should I think about playing the $4K a little more.  I’ve played it a few times over the last six months, but with little success though.  I don’t think the level of play is a heck of a lot different that what you would see at the $5/$10 levels.  In fact, better opponents might be a +EV move for me in some respects.

Bankroll is the other factor.  Currently, I’m not at a point where I’ll simply buy in to the $26 tourney 3-4 times a week, I’ll need to do a little more token hunting, which is not a difficult task, but takes time.

Any thoughts, opinions, criticisms?